Sunday, June 14, 2009

H1N1 in the UK... now sustained community spread

In the UK , the government now accepts that what it terms "sustained community transmission" is now taking place.

This is characterised by an increased number of sporadic cases with no identifiable link with other confirmed cases

The government estimates that the UK has enough anti-viral drugs for 50% of the population but has plans to raise that figure to 80%.

The above BBC report confirms the inevitable. As expected, H1N1 flu pandemic has now been declared by the World Health Organization (WHO).The virus has gained the upper hand and swept the world relentlessly, thanks to the easy travel and work/social gatherings. Look like we have to accept the reality that nature has an intrinsic balancing mechanism. Just like the spread of HIV in the early eighties, the virus is said to have originated from that Dark Continent and has now spread all over the world. The mode of transmission is through blood and infected secretion/body fluid and people have to learn how to protect themselves.

In most infectious diseases, there is a spectrum, from the mildly infected to the most severely infected, like the Gaussian Distribution in statistics. Whilst most people will build antibodies to the virus, some will unfortunately succumb to the disease. H1N1 is no difference.

H1N1 is transmitted by droplets when one sneezes or cough... you'd better take precautions like turning your back to people who cough, no handshakes with people who sneeze, wash your hands regularly especially after touching common things like door knobs, work computers. Do not touch your nose with your dirty hands or gloves. Do not sit in the train or bus facing people, do not be in a crowd and keep those masks handy!

Fortunately the virus is sensitive to current antiviral drugs (oseltamivir and zanamivir).

So if you return from London on that plane and found to be feverish with cough, and later confirmed as suffering from H1N1 influenza, the whole plane will be quarantined! ...... We have yet to detect H1N1 cases infected via community spread in this country... but the writings are on the wall! As our neighbours are not as "frenzied" as us...

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