Market in 2012 and 2013- What the Fund Managers Say

I was reading a local paper a few days ago on the market outlook by fund managers particularly in Malaysia. All of them agreed that our market underperformed in 2012 compared to those of our neighbours, Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia. Our market is said to be defensive and has been bogged down by the uncertainties of the looming general election. Certain anxiety has been expressed regarding the anticipated upheaval should there be a change of government or if the present government is returned with a reduced majority.

While the concerns regarding the effects of the Fiscal Cliff in America are expected to be resolved, the sentiment is still cautious with the Eurozone debt crisis  still simmering. Economic data from China has shown some positive trend and the Country is expected to come out of its two-year economic low. Data on jobs and housing from America is also beginning to improve so according to these managers things are looking up in 2013.

Strategies,strategies, strategies

Some managers are still sticking to defensive stocks pending the political outcome following the general election to be called by March 2013. Some are avoiding cyclical performers in the oil and gas as well as construction industries and putting their eggs in finance,plantation and consumers stocks.

Others said they would buy on weakness (when FBM KLCI is below 1601) and sell on strength when the Index goes up to 1700. A good tip for me to also follow and make some money as I have trouble selling my stock, instead getting foolishly high on paper gain!

These big-shot fund managers certainly know what they are talking about as they are not only market-savvy but they also have a vast amount of data/information, economic researchers and stock analysts working for them and they deal with billion of fund so it is good to read about what they are saying.

Guilty pleasure

As I am managing my own little fund, I have to weigh in all the information and make my conclusions and buying and selling decisions which are also based on  readings and experience.

Actually my fund in equities is only 17% of my total portfolios. So delving into stock market is more like a little money-making hobby with ego being inflated and deflated along the way. For what is life without excitement,anticipation joy and slight depression? And now time for that coffee...

Baltic Cruise- Memories of St Petersburg

Summer palace garden

Romanov Winter Palace

As part of my 17-day Baltic Cruise to six Baltic countries  last September 2012 , I visited the city of  St Petersburg in Russia. Contrary to my preconceived ideas, the city is vibrant with traffic jams everywhere and on  bridges across the main river dissecting it. There are many architecturally beautiful buildings among the latest rather ugly simple box-like buildings.

Intricate façade of the Czar's Summer palace

Newer building-not as aesthetic but practical

 As our time was short, we merely spent most of our two day there visiting palaces built by the Romanov, famous among them are Catherine and Peter The Great. We also had time to visit a great museum-like place called the Hermitage where belongings of the Romanov are being displayed. many consist of paintings, sculptures, furnitures, cutleries,room furnishings,vases,clocks among others. We also spent some time visiting famous landmarks such as the Church of the Spilled Blood.

Church of the Spilled blood

The Church and its pretty minarets

Looking at the old aesthetically beautiful buildings , you could actually imagine the luxury,indulgence, wastefulness  and decadence enjoyed by the ruling class with their palaces,gardens, massive properties and retinue of servants. No wonder the suppressed peasants revolted (the Revolution) and finally toppling their elites and got what rightly belong to every hard-working citizen and Russia became a Republic.

Summer Palace Interior Garden

Part of interior of summer palace

Summer palace

St Petersburg's early morning traffic

Summer Palace furnishing

We visited the Summer and Winter Palaces and were only able to do some souvenir shopping. We managed to have our meals at restaurants and experience their culinary offerings.

One of the hundreds of palaces with
late afternoon traffic jam

Well-kept Summer palace garden

Winter  palace

Chic porcelain-one of many
different varieties on display 
at the Summer  palace

Compared to Berlin which we visited earlier, the paintings in St Petersburg were more refined and beautifully maintained. Their sculptures were more modest with less embarrassing exposures.

The palaces are maintained by the State unlike that in Germany which is by some charity foundation and you could see the difference in appearance of the palaces in the two countries.

Despite Russians being famous for vodka-drinking and rough behaviours (remember President Yelstin ) but the reality is far different, perhaps more like the current sedate President Putin whom I admire in spite of his tough reputation.

They are more polite and friendlier than the Germans, at least those manning the palaces. The tourist guide was excellent and she worked at the university and very proud of her heritage. Sandra was really funny and could laugh at her own shortcomings. A lovely sense of humour.

Potret of Queen Alexandra wife to the last Czar Nicholas
 and grand-daugther of  Queen Victoria of England

There was so much to see but we only managed to tour the tourists' attractions only. It would have been great to look at other aspects of the Russian life. They have such a long and rich culture beyond communism. It was hard to look at them as really different people professing an  ideology completely foreign to us.

I certainly would like to visit the city again and this time on a longer basis. It is best to visit around June as the weather would have been not too cold or hot, a pleasant time for walking.

The Prayer ...... Celine Dion - Andrea Bocelli

 A prayer is always soothing to the mind telling it that there is that Supreme Being looking over us especially when we are depressed or feel direction less in our pursuit in the business of living. There are times that we feel helpless and that we need that Power to help us find the right path and calm our nerves. 

 Having said that, we should also pray in times of joy to offer our thanks and gratefulness to our Creator whom we call by different names but mean the same thing. Yes, the faith in God will guide us towards positive living and true happiness.

I like this song as it portrays what a prayer should be, good lyrics, amazing voice and excellent harmony. It really touches the soul!

Pulmonary TB- a straight forward case with delayed detection

A 43 year old man came to the clinic complaining of recurrent blood-streaked sputum following bouts of coughs for three days. He looked healthy though on further questioning he admitted having a mild evening fever and that his weight had gone down recently.

When asked how long he had been coughing, he replied that it was more than three months but claimed the cough was mild and did not bother him. He had come to the clinic a couple of times for coughs and was treated with antibiotics. His coughs seemed to have settled till the recent bloody sputum that had caused great concern to him.

He is a smoker and works as a security guard. He denied any contact with a person suffering from tuberculosis.

Without wasting much time, I ordered sputum for Acid Fast Bacilli (AFB) on three  occasions and a chest X-ray which confirmed my suspicion. His sputum sample later was positive for TB bacilli. He was promptly put on a TB regime.

The cotton-wool lesions in the right middle and lower lung lobes  highly suggestive of tuberculosis prior to sputum AFB confirmation.

Really, his case could have been diagnosed earlier but somehow was not detected. Again here history taking is very important. Quite often patients are not going to volunteer information critical to diagnosis, unless probed. I always have to appear intrusive by asking questions to screen the signs and symptoms as to arrive at the right diagnosis. Early detection is vital in infectious disease control in the community.

Late diagnosis leads to greater transmission of the TB germs in the community and increase the risks of resistant TB as more patients are likely to default on the treatment causing TB control problems.

The patients' contacts are traced to ensure early treatment should any of them got infected.

Celebrating Christmas 2012

Relaxing at Marina Yacht Club

Christmas this year was not as exciting as last year when I went to Singapore to experience new sights and sounds of a metropolis. Stayed at the Hotel Michael in the Sentosa Resort World. Had a whale of time visiting the attractions of the resort including the Universal Studio. The whole place was vibrant and I must say there were more tourists than locals. After four days of fun and frolic, we moved to Mandarin  Oriental in Orchard Road right in the shopping heaven.

We were lucky to book our accommodation early as the hotels at the CBD were all fully taken up. Lightings in the streets of the city was truly magical with different colour themes for different years. The atmosphere was really infectious. People were on the streets enjoying the crowds late into the night, strolling,talking,laughing and eating.

Decorative part of a creative Christmas tree

So this year, with the end of the world prediction on 21 December 2012, we had really no appetite for travel though some of our close relatives have gone off to holiday in Paris and London, posting their status almost daily on Facebook. It was as if we were following in their journey by plane,train,car and cab! Such is the current social media penetration into our lives!

Looking at the pictures, we are tempted to also be there next year depending on my leave. So 2013 hopefully would be more exciting than this year.

Ubiquitous Poinsettia and Christmas is here

I went to have lunch with my friend  Doreen at her house. The company was excellent and foods were sumptuous (catered by a famous ex-hotel Chef!). We stayed there for quite some time catching up with other invited friends. Hugging was plentiful. Somehow it was time to express our emotion and cement our  friendships.

Just after four, we decided to drive to a place famous for local fruits, durians,manggis (mangosteen), duku,langsat and rambutan galore! Though the season was coming to an end, still there were good durians for the picking. The price was much cheaper than last year, something to be joyous about this Christmas.

In keeping with healthy foods, we cut down on cakes this year. Last year I gobbled on those delicious cakes and became guilty afterwards but this year, I am more disciplined and very relieved as a result. Having like-minded relatives and friends make it all the easier to stay away from those sweet stuffs and strive to stay healthy and strengthen the commitment for the new year 2013!

I hope you all had a Merry Christmas too!

ASN or AS1M : Which one would you invest in?

For those lucky people who can no longer top up their investment in ASB due to the pre-determined  limit of 200k for each investor,you may like to look for other unit trusts in the PNB stable. The other products such as ASM,ASW,ASD have all been fully subscribed but you can still get them if you are willing to keep asking the agents whether some are available to be purchased. The downside is you need to have ready cash at that particular point of time the units became available. Who would be carrying that amount of cash just so you can capture the opportunity? Some smart people who trust such agents even leave their cash with the latter to enable prompt purchase.

Now for those who can invest in ASN, a variably priced unit trust, you may do so at any time without any limit. The recent dividend declaration of 6.30 for ASN, the highest in 12 years, may attract people to make additional investments specially in the first week in January 2013 following the issuance of dividend as the unit price will be low. Two to three months before the dividend declaration, ASN unit price shot up from a low of 0.8190 in January 2012 to about 0.89 to 0.90 in September to December.

I just want to work out whether investing in ASN is better than in AS1M at that rate of dividend. My friend told me last week that her friendly ASNB agent had called asking her to invest in ASN and take advantage of the low price post-dividend. She was wondering which one is better investing in ASN or AS1M?

Now let's suppose I want to invest 20k   in ASN at a unit price of 0.80, then calculating for the sales charge of 5% , the number of units due to me will be 24,750. Supposed I keep these units, despite appreciation, for dividend purposes and suppose the dividend rate for 2013 is still 6.30 sen, then the amount I expect to receive at unit price of say 0.82 is roughly RM1278 (with my capital of 20k (minus 5% towards cost of purchase). The dividend yield here is 7.8%. Please note the assumptions made.

Now supposed I want to invest 20k in AS1M at a fixed unit price of 1.00, without any sales charge, the number of units due to me will be 20,000. If the dividend is the same as last year, that is at 6.60, then the amount of dividend I would get is RM1320. The dividend yield here is 6.6%.

The dividend yield for ASN is higher because of its lower unit price. Since the price is variable, you could well get a better return if the unit price at dividend declaration is, say ,higher than 80 sen, eg if at 90 sen, then your return would be RM1403, surpassing AS1M's  by RM83.... hmmm, not that hot eh!

The main difference is in AS1M you have to keep your investment for 12 months to earn that return, otherwise it would be proportionate to the number of full months you invest, whereas in ASN it can be any number of months provided it shows up on the first day of the following month at the time of dividend declaration.

It could be a difficult decision if you wanted to invest a large sum but I suppose it would depend on your risk appetite. For the risk-averse, it is better to stick to the fixed-priced unit trust where your capital is protected but the gain may not be as high.

High dividend at 12.5 sen  (2010 and 2011) plus possible capital appreciation

Me?, I have just returned to my high risk mode by putting my money in a plantation stock last week after a two-year hiatus. As they say,high risk,high gain......and high loss!

To Err is Human to Forget is.... Out of the Question

After a number of years and thanks to Facebook, I am able to re-connect with my class and schoolmates. Memories came rushing in as I see those faces aged by time but my mind could still see them when they were teenagers. Yes, I studied at a boarding school where our behaviours were shaped by the friends that we made. Six long years of happiness, loneliness,anger,disappointment, failure and success.

Find old friends  on FB and reminisce

Coming from a family of four boys and one girl (me), I found it hard to mix when I first joined the all-girl school located in the far south of the peninsular. I was awkward and tried hard to improve on the many areas that I found myself deficient and I learnt fast. I remember several teachers liked and trusted me. I was given responsibilities like carrying the girls' exercise books to the teacher's staff room and keeping the key to the school home science kitchen and assisting in the school library and chosen as a pack leader in the Girl Guide.

But somehow my relationship with my classmates was on a different plane. As a group, they would have found me as rather quiet and unsociable so they did not nominate me for any responsible task.To make matters worse I also suffered from anaemia which weakened me and stopped me from participating in more robust activities like sports though I excelled in class dramas usually acting as a male, must have been tomboyish!

Anyway to cut a long story short, it was when I was tasked with keeping the school kitchen's key that I came to trouble with the teachers because they stopped trusting me from then on and I was treated like a "pariah". You see, one day on a Saturday, after a school outing, my senior of two years, came to me to ask for the kitchen's key because she and her friends wanted to do some "unauthorised" cooking. Being my senior in the boarding school, I reluctantly gave it to her as it was a Saturday evening.

As luck would have it, as the girl and her friends were busy cooking,making the kitchen as if their own, Miss Pothucheary, the Home science teacher who entrusted me with the key,  came in probably because, as a duty teacher, she saw the light on and My God! I knew something was wrong when the girl failed to return the key to me for safe-keeping. Apparently the culprits got real tongue lashings from the woman.

The teacher called me first thing on Sunday morning ( years ago Sunday was not a holiday in that State) and without hearing my side of the story and explanations  she started to scream and scream at me and accused me of being irresponsible and undeserving of being trusted! I was only 14 years old! I had wished the earth would swallow me and I remember tears streaming down my cheeks. I was very furious and disappointed with that senior girl. Following the incident, I noticed the other teachers were also cool towards me. Imagine in a boarding school and I virtually had no one to really talk to for fear of further reprisals.

She screamed her heart out as I silently cried

After the unfortunate event, my grades started to fall. Initially, I came in second in the class of about 25 brightest girls coming from all over the country in the first year but slide in the next three years. I was depressed. I picked up myself in the last year somehow and managed to stay in the top five but bouts of depression and self-doubt still haunted me and my performance was really not consistent. I scored 96% , the  form's  highest, for Additional Mathematics during the MCE (Malaysian Certificate of Education) trial examination and became the toast of my maths teacher a man called Mr Chan but did not do as well in the real examination.

Getting a scholarship based on the results of the trial examination and going to Australia to study  was the best thing that could have happened to me. I wanted to show my teachers and my friends who I really am. There were five of us selected to study overseas and I am the only one who succeeded in completing my medical course. The others failed in their attempts or could not even enter Medicine after their matriculation. I was offered the prestigious Colombo Plan Scholarship to do Medicine at the University of Queensland. The period was the best in my life as I  regained my confidence away from small-mindedness. I made friends  and one of whom last to this day though he is in a different profession.

Now as you might have guessed it, I am looking at the face of the girl, now an old woman, who destroyed my life in that boarding school, on Facebook. The anger came back involuntarily as I cannot bring myself to forget what she did to me. I have to learn to forgive her but I could never learn to forget the consequence of her action on me. It was a long time ago but a teenager's terror and undue hatred has become entrenched. Even the name of the teacher I could not spell properly but her terrible raging face is fresh in my mind. I really pray no child has to undergo that kind of experience because it is just so unjust and unfair.

Yes, this is the feared  and despised Gorgon

Getting to where I am today, I always remember to treat my underlings fairly and refrain from them remembering me as a Gorgon... yes, the teacher became a Gorgon to a child of 14 on that fateful day and the child never forgets.

Facebook brings me joy but it also brings back bad memories.

ASB 2012 Dividend

Congratulation to all my Bumiputra colleagues and friends who invest in ASB (Amanah Saham Bumiputra), a fixed-priced unit trust exclusive for Bumi. This year dividend payout is 7.75 sen per unit compared to 7.65 sen last year. An apparent slight increase ( remember the general Election is just around the corner!). As for bonus, it is still the same as last year at 1.15.

PNB Chairman (L) and its CEO at the ASB 2012 dividend declaration

I have always advised my Bumi staff to invest in the unit trust as this particular product is the best among the unit trusts under the PNB (Permodalan Nasional Berhad) stable of  products. Many seem to take this exclusive opportunity to invest for granted and so miss out on the seemingly high annual returns. Many non-Bumi would do anything to get these units. As we have observed the non- Bumi portions of both ASM and AS1M have all been subscribed but there is still a large portion available to Bumis.

This is the best approach currently in preparing for your retirement coffer,  putting your money in this type of government-guaranteed scheme. And by the time you retire, you'd find that staying attached to this index-linked unit trust is the best way to create wealth over the long period. The failure of some people to save and invest diligently has led to their not being able to lead a comfortable life post-retirement. The reason could be due to inability to imagine their future as they tend to live and let live for today.

Happy Doomsday 211212 !

Today is the last day of the Mayan Long Count Calendar. For those who surf the internet a lot, you will certainly be familiar with the story of the apocalypse predicted on this day. In fact some people in Russia and America have taken to stocking up on supplies to prepare for this end of the world prompting experts like NASA to come out and tell the world that 21 December 2012 is just going to be like any other day.

Oooops, we've got the date wrong! (net image)

So it is today Friday 21 December 2012. When I got up this morning, the morning seemed bleak as it had been drizzling  last night. My compound looked wet. (Yesterday was bright and sunny).The traffic seemed to be just a wee bit light, perhaps some people have already gone on their Christmas holidays? I am trying to look for anything abnormal today as you can see.

The internet is full of articles on the fact that we are still here today. Someone from London tweeted asking "Australia, are you still there?" seeing that Australia and New Zealand would greet 21 December ahead of Europe. The whole thing has been turned into some kind of a circus show. This has upset some Mayan descendants who see today as a day of spiritual significance.

Well, I would say many people do not believe in the so-called prophecy of today being the end of the world. Parties are being held to celebrate the day and some go on tours of the few places said to be safe in the world. People seem to take it in their stride and as this “epic disaster” (set with all kinds of scenarios) would affect all of humanity, the fear seem to have diminished through its sharing.

In fact many people don’t even know about these  hullabaloos  and remain blissfully ignorant. I guess they won’t even know what hit them if the apocalypse materialises. That’s the best way to leave this world, provided everyone exits the same time!

But just hold on a sec, the day has not yet ended now they say the apocalypse will take place at 10.42 or 11.11  now where  in the world is that?

MAXIS - The final dividend for 2012

I just happened to check my dividend-paying portfolios and did not fail to notice that Maxis would be paying an 8 sen per unit dividend on 28 December. What a nice end to the year of 2012. All together Maxis has paid out 40 sen per unit for this year. It is substantial as far as I am concerned. At the same time its market price is rising steadily.

Whatever happens  I am going to keep this golden goose. I like the idea of getting dividend every three months. It kind of makes you feel your money is breeding right in front of you. I wish TM would do the same  as currently it is giving dividend every six months.

Maxis seems more robust in terms of its competitiveness. You notice that it has a number of innovative products to capture the broadband market. I think it still has some growth potential as it fights to get the migrant market share now being capitalised by DIGI.

About six weeks ago, Maxis share price was down due to profit taking activities of likely to be foreign fund managers and now they are coming back to lift up the stock price. As it has always been said, you can make money in a volatile market provided you have ready capital at hand. I had wanted to accumulate more shares       through the redemption of my recent ASIM dividend but instead I decided at a rather last minute to buy more AMB units as it was selling at a discount of 3% coupled with its low unit price which went down to below its issue price of 50 sen. Well, looking at the risk, it's better to be with an index rather than an individual stock especially during this uncertain financial times. I am a bit risk-averse here.

Having learnt certain lessons, I did not flinch this time around when Maxis share price went down to below the price I acquired it. The consistent dividend which makes me take the long position. It is like Warren Buffet and his golden Coca-Cola stock. Why do we need to ever dispose of it when the company is strong fundamentally and when communication will never be out of fashion?

So here's to Maxis.. a toast to our "partnership"

Loss of Appetite and the "Magical" Turmeric Paste

This 47 year-old lady of Javanese descent came to see me complaining of being constantly hungry but had no appetite to eat. She had lost some weight over one and a half year and now feeling quite agitated.  She also had gastric pain especially at nights. I ran a battery of tests on her but could not find anything major except for a low haemoglobin of 10.1 g/dL and a low BMI of 19 (underweight).

She spoke rapidly and appeared impatient. I looked for signs and symptoms of an active thyroid and did a blood test to assess her thyroid function.

Yellow-stained palm 

Something about her appearance intrigued me. Her face seemed to have a yellowish tint around the cheeks, nose and forehead. Then I noticed her hands were stained yellow. I asked her what she had been making and she said she made turmeric paste mixed with honey (Jamu Kunyit) as a health concoction. She has been making and taking this paste for the last two years to boost her health, strengthen her reproductive organ,pelvic muscle, make her slim and skin flawless! Now, this seemed to coincide with the start and the continuation of her anorexic ( no appetite) problem.

Yellow-tint facial skin

My nurse then related her own experience of taking this same paste during her confinement, apparently this turmeric paste is supposed to contract the uterus faster and strengthen the muscle around the pelvic region. She took it for a couple of months and found that she had lost her appetite and consequently her weight. She felt awful: nauseous and a strange taste in her mouth.  She stopped taking it upon realising the adverse effects. Such is the "magic" of the turmeric paste!

The following claims have been made on the use of turmeric:

Thirteen ways a 100% certified organic-based Turmeric can spice up your whole person:

Turmeric rhizomes and powder

1. Boosts your antioxidant protection against free radicals*
2. Helps promote your healthy skin*
3. Supports your overall eye health*
4. Provides you immune system support*
5. Aids your skeletal system and joint health*
6. Encourages your healthy liver function*
7. Helps you maintain healthy cells with support against free radicals*
8. Balances the health of your digestive system*
9. Aids you in support of healthy blood and your circulatory system*
10. Helps you maintain normal cholesterol levels to support your cardiovascular system*
11. Assists your neurological system's healthy response to stress*
12. Promotes a healthy female reproductive system*
13. Helps you maintain blood sugar levels already within the normal range

Source: Mercola.com

The pronounced benefits of turmeric seem wonderful  but where are the evidence to support its use by a large number of people? Moreover the processing of this herb may introduce other inorganic products which may be harmful to the liver and kidney when consumed on a regular basis. Can a manufacturer guarantee a 100% product purity? Is the dosage weight-dependent? what are its contraindications? What about adverse side-effects? What about the inclusion of other items such as honey, ginger and tamarind in a home-made paste (jamu)? Could the turmeric mixture become toxic to our excretory organs?

Despite all the alleged benefits, the home-made herb concoction has adversely affected my patient's appetite and the worst consequence is, she feels hungry but has no desire to eat: how paradoxical? I advised her to stop consuming the concoction and gave her multivitamins to promote her appetite and she has an appointment to see me later to review her condition.

Everyday I am learning new things from my patients some of whose practices never fail to fascinate me.