Astro IPO: My Misadventure

When news of Astro's relisting came out, many of us were elated and made preparation to apply for the IPO. However when the IPO price was declared, there were many negative comments appearing in the mainstream as well as online media. Most reckoned that the price was inflated and not congruent with Astro's growth status and foreseeable future earnings; at RM3.00 per share, it is well above its P/E ratio based on some stock analysts' calculation.

The rising arrow is actually money for the company
 and not for small investors

I read all about these negative write-ups and in fact had advised some relatives not to apply the IPO. Then I read about some big cornerstone investors buying into Astro and was beginning to feel confident that perhaps the analysts and commentators were wrong as after all it's the market which was going to determine the price eventually. I was still not  convinced generally to apply  but somehow the contrarian in me had refused to follow my instinct. It did not help when my earlier IPO applications for Gas Malaysia and IGB Reit were also not successful so my appetite for IPO had not been satiated at that point in time. I must  try my luck again!

And so when the IPO application was opened, I sauntered to the ATM at my bank and proceeded to apply digitally through ESA. Honestly, if I were to withdraw 90k in cash to apply for 30k shares , I would have thought twice but since it was cashless, I did not feel hesitant, just pressed the buttons and Hey Presto! the transaction was done. And yet, after it was completed, I regretted it almost instantly and was hoping my application would not be successful.

ESA so deceptively easy.... cashless!

As you guessed it (otherwise I won't be whining like this!), my application was successful though a fraction was subtracted and some money was refunded to my bank account.

 When I read that the IPO was oversubscribed, I was a little encouraged and rather elated. But my elation was short-lived when Astro made a very poor début on the listing day. I knew it right away that what the people had been saying was true. I did not act fast enough to dispose of the shares at the opening price which was a few cents higher than the IPO because my tendency is always to buy and hold the shares like what I did with PChem and MSM for which I made a decent profit over a year.

The rest is history. Astro stock was battered down with selling off and it closed at 2.67 today! I am flabbergasted. Who are still selling their shares? It doesn't make sense those who buy the shares at RM3.00 would sell them  at a lower price. It must be people who hold these shares before the re-listing, who else could it be??

I am also disappointed with the banks, one of them is CIMB, appointed to evaluate the stock and price it well above the so called "fair value". It reminds me of the Facebook IPO fiasco in US Nasdaq this year where the valuation was done very high based on some assumptions, leading to many investors' losses. I read about this and thought it would not happen here in Malaysia.... how wrong I was!

But people, most of all,  I blame myself for not sticking to my gut feeling. I am glad though I managed to advise my younger relatives not to apply for Astro IPO and they all stayed away. Unfortunately my risk appetite (greed?) got the better of me and now I am stuck with currently  "worthless" shares. And I have no intention of dollar averaging the shares at the moment.  I will, instead, keep these shares hoping that Astro would perform and give decent dividends (which apparently would work out to lowly  2.3%- 3.2%) in the next couple of years. And to the people who gain unfairly from this Astro re-listing  I wish them good luck in their life. Today is their day.

An investor's delight!

By the way, I take comfort in my SkPetro stock, purchased at 1.92 per share, which climbed sharply over the last few days to somehow, on paper, over compensated for my Astro losses. Thanks goodness!

And finally,  in  future, I will be more wary of those non-GLC IPO! And respect majority opinion as well as listen to my instinct...... and of course, approach the ATM cautiously.

Cat-lovers, Asthma and Mental Health

Almost always my patients who come to the clinic complaining of frequent intractable chronic cough, congestion and full blown asthma have cats in their houses. Despite my advice for them to remove the furry animals, many have refused to do so citing mutual attraction,love and not having the heart to let the animal go.

Cute  Cats but not for everyone

I have a patient, a man in his thirties, who have been coughing for many months and  TB screening were negative. He kept coming to the clinic and the doctors kept giving him antibiotics and cough mixtures and he was getting desperate as the cough really spoiled his sleep, making him tired and irritable. It did not help that he was working as a construction worker with all those dust surrounding him. One positive thing about him was that he was not a smoker.

One day he turned up with three of his children who had wheezy coughs for days on end and one of them was so bad that I had to order for  prompt nebulisation. Obviously this was one happy family of asthmatics! As usual I asked about whether there were cats in the house. Yes, there were, each child had got one cat each and they sleep with the creature and incidentally one of the children had got a couple of sores on the scalp that appeared to be infected bite by cat's fleas.

I informed the man about the association of wheezing in children and flying cat's danders and the possible effect on the lungs  causing allergic coughs that he had been suffering from but he appeared not to be convinced and even said something like God would help those who protect animals? So I firmly told him that there was no cure for allergy as long as the triggering factors are present in his home. It is a waste of time for him to keep coming to the clinic and receiving medications which has short-lived effectiveness.  The best solution is to identify and avoid those allergens.

I have also advised patients rearing cats on the danger of cat's  parasite called Toxoplasmosis gondii which affect the muscle and the nervous system and could cause long-term health problems especially during pregnancy but not many patients are convinced of this effect. The news article today is relating an association of self harm in people affected by the parasite. this research appears to confirm what has been known anecdotally for years now.

The effects of cat's parasite on the nervous system causing functional  breakdown is really frightening.

Allergy and itchy Mrs G

Mrs G is a a long-time patient of mine. She is a pleasant old lady of 56 who comes to the hypertension clinic regularly without fail and is compliant of her medication as a result her condition is pretty well under control. As I have quite a number of such patients, I put Mrs G on a three-monthly appointment. And Mrs G would always turn up at the appointed date.

So it was rather a surprise when my nurse told me one morning that Mrs G had insisted to see me ahead of her appointment in a month's time. She came into the clinic looking gaunt and depressed. She claimed she had not been able to sleep restfully for the last few weeks because of the annoying itchiness all over her body. She admitted going to see a private doctor on two occasions the past two weeks and paid nearly RM200.00 for an injection and medications but the itchiness had not subsided and she was really miserable. Luckily her son in law who is a driver to a Federal Minister helped foot the bill, otherwise she would be more unhappy as she is a housewife and her husband is a small time contractor.

I took one look at her body and observed the small reddish patches all over and I noticed the good old GP had even given her high dose steroid but to no avail. I asked her about any new medications,foods or chemicals that she started using just prior to the generalised itchiness. She replied no but I insisted that she try hard to remember. For that kind of skin allergy, it must have been something enveloping her body either internally or externally. Then I asked her whether she had just changed her washing powder and Walla! "That's it", she said. her son- in- law had bought a new clothes detergent about three weeks before and since then she had had the problem. I told her simply to get rid of the detergent and use her old one and to rewash all her clothes. I gave her some anti-histamines after the consultation.

A couple of days ago, Mrs G came in for her hypertension appointment looking healthy and lovely and obviously very pleased with herself. She then announced that her itchiness had gone and she could sleep well now after she discarded the culprit washing detergent.

Again here, there is no miracle medicine but just simple history taking and a high index of suspicion regarding the cause of the allergy. Being my long-time patient also help me to make a faster diagnosis of her condition. For an allergic condition, medications are no answers if the trigger ( the offending agent) is still present.

TM- Timely Repurchase of Shares?

As expected after the ex date of the capital repayment of TM, the shares depreciated about 30 sen from the last close of 6.04 on 26 July 2012. In fact it went down lower than 30 sen to 5.65! I was watching the trend closely but could not really decide when to enter (secretly hoping it would go down lower still- Big deal!). My better half decided to repurchase his shares at 5.70 and I was still being smugly hesitant.

TM- the relentless rise post-capital repayment on 27 July 2012

The week went by and the buying volume gradually increased by the thousands. As usual I like to buy when everyone else seems to sell on late Friday afternoon but somehow people seemed to still keep buying the shares, erasing the usual pattern of lethargy in the market on Fridays. I was rather perplexed initially then it dawns upon me that this stock is not going to retreat despite the volatile financial situation at the global level. I went in to buy at 5.72 on 3 Aug and when wanting to buy additional shares, within minutes it went to 5.73 and my remisier advised me to stop and wait for a "better price" on a Friday? No, I told her firmly (no risk, no gain), please continue buying  at 5.73 and last Friday week, the closing price was 5.75.

And the price continued to rise even to 5.90 last week with the closing being 5.81 last Friday 10 Aug. And so the decision to buy at that price was kind of lucky I would say and not due to clever investing skill. It would have been wonderful had I decided to buy at 5.65! All the same, it was not a timely repurchase in the real sense of the word but it is when you note the sudden focused price uptrend at the point just after I repurchased the shares. I envy my better half's decisive timing though, buying at the bottom of the trough.

As usual, I will stick to Burton Makiel's ( Random Walk on Wall Street ) advice to buy and hold as I believe in TM's long term's prospects of giving high dividends to its investors and wait for another capital repayment exercise in 2015?

By the way, TM might just announce another dividend distribution later this month to be paid by September? I cannot wait for that pocket money.

MAXIS - Ananda, Market Reaction and Panic Selling

Regret and disappointment  were overwhelming when I read that Ananda Krishnan, the multi-billionaire major shareholder of MAXIS  suddenly sold a substantial number of shares of the telco below market price last week. Right after the news the share price depreciated fast down to 6.26. As most of us who read articles or books on investment would have known that when an owner of the company sells his shares, we should also follow suit. The logic is why should the owner of a supposedly profitable company dispose of his shares? Is the company heading for lower bottomlines? ( read profit/dividend).

When Uncle Ananda sneezes, we all catch a cold!

I bought the shares high at 6.385 in the middle of June 2012 and had witnessed the short rally when the price appreciated right to 6.92 in early July but did not sell as I was thinking of getting the high dividends declared every three months. I held on to the shares rather arrogantly.

I  noticed the nervous selling down  in the market of MAXIS shares following the news. I was also in the state of  apprehension myself and was thinking that I should cut my losses fast by selling at 6.37 last Friday 27 July 2012.

I asked my remisier to queue in the morning and it seemed nobody was buying. In the meantime, I read an online article on the subject and came to understand  that Ananda actually sold his shares to PNB and EPF. I felt relieved as I knew these mammoth institutions exist to make money for their members/investors and they are not likely to sell off the shares as the stock generates good dividends. By 2.30pm the same afternoon, I called up my remisier and asked whether she was able to sell my 50% shares and she replied in the negative. I told her immediately to cancel it while hoping that my decision and analysis of Ananda's action were correct.

And later, true enough the  shares began to recover and today the price has gone up to 6.57. Some people would have made quite a sum had they bought my shares at 6.37 last Friday!

Panic selling due to herd mentality is not abnormal in a stock market. People react to news, negative or positive to defend their positions. Individual investors are supposed to find out fast the reasons behind such action and analyse the information so that a decision made either to sell or to buy is based on rational analysis and not on emotion. But really, it is easier said than done and one can always be wise  after the event. In my case, I made the decision to withdraw the selling just in time.

I believe Ananda would not have done anything to destabilise his company. Moreover he only sold 5% of his holding of 70% and he has also just become one of the cornerstone shareholders of the third largest IPO in the world, the IHH! MAXIS shares appreciated from 5.39 early in the year to 6.92 middle of July so his selling them  at 6.21 to the "safest" institutions in Malaysia would have already made him enough money to fund his new business/ acquisitions including IHH.

By the way, have we ever heard that MAXIS's customers are dumping the telco? A big  "NO", so the generation of income will still give  a generous dividend of 32 sen annually ( provided past performance is sustainable).

Yes, I also initially reacted mindlessly to the news of Ananda's shares' disposal and nearly dumped  50% of my shares but by the stroke of luck, no small  investors could have foreseen the temporary hiccup in the market and so refused to touch those shares I had wanted to short!

Dividend Leader of the Pack

From now on, and for a period of  time, I will keep MAXIS shares for its high dividend-yielding nature.

AMB - Value Trust Fund is My Choice

My experience with mutual funds at the beginning of my investing adventure was not good at all. I remember losing so much on the funds that I purchased through a foreign bank. Among them were Amglobal Properties, Pacific GDP Momentum,CIMB Climate Change, Hwang DBS Select fund and the hopeless structured funds. Come to think of it, the bankers who sold these funds to customers really had no clue as to the funds' historical performance and the economic and financial circumstances in which they operate. They only know how to sell and get commission on top of it.

Before you jump up to defend the bankers by saying that every investment has risks and that I need to read the prospectuses before I invest, let me just tell you that many of us small investors just do not have the time to go through those thick books and what more many do not even understand the quality of risks and the terminologies used to describe them. All we want is to invest our money and get more out of them than mere low-interest saving (of course with no loss of sleep especially when your standard 60K saving is guaranteed by PIDM).

Nice to look, nicer to have

Yes, I do a lot of readings on investing and now have become a lot wiser. And so when my banker at a local bank introduced to me AMB value trust and with an explanation and description of the fund's sterling performance whose dividend rate was 10% last year, I was encouraged and decided to purchase it when there was a discount of 3.5% of the sales charge in May this year. I bought quite a substantial number of units at 0.5585.  And today I noted that the price had gone up to 0.5926 on 24 July 2012. My calculation shows that I have made a gain of about 3% in just two months. Well of course if you were lucky on the stock market, you could make a lot more than this but I am rather satisfied with the income generation as I have set a five-year period for this "low risk" investment.

Moreover, AMB Value Trust has been declared as the Best Equity Malaysia Fund in 2012 in the five-year category. Finding a gem among the multitude of funds available is not easy but I must say my confidence in mutual fund has been restored though I will definitely not going to put my money in just any fund now.

The dividend declaration for this fund is at the end of next month (August) and will be reinvested automatically. I hope it will continue to perform despite the global financial uncertainties due to the eurozone debt woes which never seems to end.

TM - Skipping the Capital Repayment 2012

Since the announcement of the proposal for TM capital repayment in June this year, I have already calculated what I would have earned should I choose to dump all the shares before ex-date on 27 July. In fact I noticed that the shares started to rally in late June following the mandatory parliamentary approval of the repayment and well before the formal announcement made by TM in early July.

The short rally where the share price went up to 6.33 was noted immediately following the official statement. The repayment of 30 sen a share is not at all attractive for me as I have accumulated the shares from May 2009 when prices were RM 2.62-3.14. In my posting in 2009 I was lamenting the drop in TM share price  wiping out the 98 sen per share capital repayment exactly three years back. My buy and hold strategy for this blue chip  really pays. I have also begun to "love" the shares, refusing to sell when it  started to appreciate in values and still continued buying when it was RM4.34 last November 2011.

It would be foolish of me to hold on to the shares just to get the capital repayment which only constitutes a small percentage of my gain. Knowing full well that the post-capital repayment price is going to drop at least by 30 sen a share, I decided to dispose of all my shares, realising my gain and waiting breathlessly to re-purchase them after the financial exercise.

My only regret last week was for not selling all those shares at 6.28! Instead I sold portions at various prices from 5.83 to 6.28 believing that the price would still rise (greed knows no bound) and today 24 July when the price started to slide downward due to current poor market sentiment that I came to my senses and sold the final portion at 6.13 per share. It is a typical investors' greedy behaviour, when prices are going up, they tend to hold on to the shares and when the price is spiralling downwards, they helter-skelter sell in panic. I would have made much more have I not been too greedy. Lessons which, sadly, I forever never seem to have learnt!

It is interesting to see how much TM share would cost on 27 July. How does one know whether it will be going up or down? I bet, as always, I will have some rationalisation of my action and be wise after the event. Historically following capital repayment, the share this time would be 30 sen less than the last day of trading before the ex-date, in this case would be around 5.85? Let us all wait and see.

The capital repayment would enable more people to buy the shares at a lower price.As TM is a telco, it is regarded as one of the defensive stocks in a volatile market and I certainly am not going to let the opportunity pass by. As I said in my posting in 2009, I believe in TM as a profitable company which yields high dividend for its investors. To me its share price appreciation is a real bonus and the current capital repayment is dispensable.