Bursa Malaysia in the Third Week of August 2010 - Correction say the Pundits and Bullish say Me

I am quite familiar with the volatility of the market by now having followed it up closely since early 2009. Everyone seems to look up to or wait for economic figures from the US for their next investing actions. Every time Wall st rises and DJI climbs up, you would know that Bursa Malaysia would usually follow suit. So those of you who want to "time " the market is well advised to be in touch with the US quartely economic data but do so at your own risk! Caveat emptor.

I read market news voraciously as I have been trying to observe the concordance that is whether what they predict would come true as shown by the market data. Last July, the FBM KLCI has been slowly rising from 1340 to 1360 and by first week of  August it was coming to 1380. Blue chips led gainers. I gleefully saw my counters AXIATA, TM and battered SIME  doing their things, that was climbing up. Except for MAXIS which was oscillating at 5.28 and 5.30.

I was mulling over selling off some of my TM shares  acquired at 2.62  after the capital repayment last year, 2009 when the pundits were predicting a market correction in the third week of August. With the recently released better than predicted Malaysian growth data at 8.9 by Bank Negara, I did not believe them. Surely I thought the bulls would come in droves to our market despite falling Wall St pattern in the same period. So I stuck to my shares with silent prayers and true enough, the bulls drove up the index to more than 1390 at the close of the market last week. My TM rose and rose!

The pundits were left bewildered.

I had wanted to buy MAXIS at 5.28 before last week and in fact queued for it but it went up to 5.30 and the next day it went down again to 5.28 and yet I did not give a fresh instruction to my broker to re queue. And MAXIS closed at 5.40 last week... you cannot win every time!

I should not stretch my luck too far though and wait for the index to reach 1400 as predicted earlier this year. Time to reduce or short some positions and avoid the pain of a possible double dip recession especially with weak US jobs figures and slumping European market demand,  virtually rolling off  JCY, my new unhappy technology counter and other counters may be next. Follow me but blame yourself when my prediction bucks the trend.

Welcome to the roller-coaster ride of investing!

MRCB and JCY and my blundering week

I have been an inactive market participant for the last month or so especially during the FIFA world cup 2010 crazy weeks in South  Africa. But I did read market news, the up and down following American economic figures and European debt crisis as these somehow have impact on our market. Moreover this is the second quarter where  markets tend to be quieter.

Last week I re entered the market and noticed that my counter MRCB has again captured investors’ radar and it was climbing up. As I have been thinking of clearing some of my positions and perhaps picking up some stocks for short-term gains, I did not hesitate to sell off all my MRCB rights issues secured at 1.12 for 1.63. My over eagerness did not pay as the stock went on a rapid upside to reach 1.74! Why couldn’t I wait for another three days? The stock was going up, I should have waited and be a bit greedy.. ooops!

At the same time I noticed the technology counters were having a hiccup perhaps due to the lacklustre technology company reports on Wall St Journal the day before. Notion and JCY were my focus. After checking their three-month high, I went on to buy JCY at 1.51 ( well it was launched at an institutional price of 1.60 and a bit lower for retail investors) so there, the basis of my rush. Then I noted that the price was declining further and without thinking logically, I grabbed more of its shares at 1.45  only to feel irritated as it went on plunging and now seemed to stabilise at 1.37! Why couldn’t I wait for another week? The stock was going down, I should have waited and be a bit thrifty with my precious money....

Sell high, buy low, a good edict but is quite difficult to translate into practice unless you are a professional trader or fund manager. But there is no fun if you just sit back and let other people manage ALL your investing fund... I need that thrill of making it on my own which means I must be ready to laugh these blunders off....

Looks like I have to hold on to JCY till the next quarter and wait for MRCB to strike beyond 2.06 in 2011 to dispose the rest of my shares! And JCY to once again  reach 1.98... big deal mate!

Hypertension and the doctor's mental pain

She looked older and rather haggard. She specially had requested to see me. She complained of severe unremitting headache. She had been taking pain killers these past few weeks but the headache never went away. At times she said she felt nauseous and this has affected her quality of life.

I know her. Two years ago she came to my clinic because her daughter had a fall and broke her arm. After treating the child, she had told me that she was on an injectable contraception and was having headache every now and then.  I took her blood pressure and found it to be high. As it was a first reading and also the fact that she was under a  lot of stress due to her daughter's accident, I told her to have some basic blood investigations ( even gave her the forms!) and to come for daily blood pressure monitoring for three consecutive days and then to return to the clinic in 14 days' time. I also cautioned her that she would be better to stop the contraception as it can cause an increase in blood pressure in some women. I was looking forward to analysing her laboratory investigations and reviewing her blood pressure. I thought of her a lot for some unknown reasons.

But she never did turn up. That was two years ago and in the meantime she had given birth to her seventh child, having stopped her contraception soon after she saw me.

Today her blood pressure was still high and her urine contains blood and protein, an indication that her kidney function is not normal. She needs to be treated for her hypertension which has caused constant headache. If treatment had started two years back, her kidney function would not have deteriorated. I explained to her the need to be compliant with the treatment to delay the progress to kidney disease. She looked unconcerned and I feared she would not turn up for review in a fortnight's time.

As a doctor I feel sad and rather angry with myself for not being able to prevent this outcome. It did not help either  as we were not able to contact her earlier as she had no contact number. She lives far away from the city and public transportation there is poor.  She has no car. Poverty does make life miserable. And she is 37 years old with many young children to care for.  How could she look after her own health?

It is my turn now to have a headache!

The 19th FIFA World Cup 2010- What a tournament that was.

For 31 days in June and July 2010 the World was at its edge, watching the 64 games by 32 elite teams of the world. We waited for this greatest tournament for four years and what a time it was. One of the main sponsors had put it aptly by this tagline " For 31 days, every four years, the world comes together to stand apart" beautifully enunciated by Morgan Freeman, the famous Hollywood African American  veteran actor.

Watching those teams competing amid the various coaches' strategies was like  witnessing the spirits, hopes and aspirations of the respective competing countries. National pride was the ultimate price. To be the best in the world is such a good feeling. However for those of us whose countries were not competing, we turned the event into something we wanted to enjoy especially when it came with an element of prediction based on the track record, skill and type and style of  team games. Of course there is also the element of betting which has been there since time immemorial, the Roman gladiators in the years before Christ comes to mind as well as fighting fish and fighting cocks as betting platforms. People just love to gain (and many lost) on so-called luck.

Thousands of fans came together to root for and celebrate with their teams. You could see people praying hard each time a penalty was taken that I wondered  whose prayer would God grant! They roared, shrieked,shouted,screamed,jumped and in those fan-packed stadiums, they blew the vuvuzelas... what a blaring sound!  The excitement was palpable. There was, somehow a sense of emptiness when the final whistle was blown on 12 July.

There were some negative reports related to the tournament like a South Korean student who drowned while celebrating his country's entry in the round of 16, the man in South America who throttled his step child who would not stop crying while he was watching the match between USA and Chile and a few members of a family who died when their house collapsed while watching the game in Africa. The latest negative incident where 64 people in Uganda died while watching the final on 11 July was senselessly tragic as it was due to a series of bombs being planted by mindless terrorists! God makes all kinds of people in this world.

                                       The new FIFA World Cup champion 2010 - Spain

Now we know which teams are standing apart. Spain lifted the World Cup after defeating the Netherlands in the final. Spain also won FIFA fair play award (the least number of yellow and red cards). Germany came third and Uruguay fourth. The last two nations have ever become the cup champions before and for Spain, this is their first time, how historic for the nation! They deserved it. Viva le Espana!
 

                    Uruguayan Striker -Diego Forlan -Golden Ball winner


I managed to watch the final live and managed to also come to work. On the way to work  last Monday, I noticed the city-bound traffic was very light compared to other days and similar low traffic volumes were also reported in several cities in Malaysia... gosh, just look at the effect and impact of the World Cup! People took leave to watch the final and that says volumes about  the popularity and magnetism of the World Cup football and after all it is held once in four years, so bosses who don't  like football please understand.

                 

Germany Thomas Muller - Golden Shoe winner


And about Paul the psychic octopus in a German aquarium which was 100% right on his prediction of German team - participated match winners and including the final, I  regret for not following him. Now I do not know where to find octopus to cook my asam pedas  ( Chilli Octopus with tamarind juice) as promised if the Netherlands lost.... and the Dutch who played disappointing football  during that final ,by the way, actually lost in extra time. Spain 1 and Netherlands 0

                                          Psychic Octopus Paul  (Copyright Photo by TimesofIndia)

A Spain businessman has offered to buy Paul for USD 66,000 to bring it over to Spain... I wouldn't part with the creature at any price! A string of bookmakers from around the world have also expressed an interest to buy the octopus from the Oberhausen Sea Life Centre, with marketing experts predicting he could become a big hit with advertisers. But apparently the life centre said Paul would call it a day and go into retirement... what a waste of his psychic power!

Much praise have been showered on the host country which has put together a successful greatest game on earth. Their stadiums at Durban, Blomfontein, Port Elizabeth and Soccer city in Johannesburg are world-class and their people so gracious. We know more about South Africa and its people and culture now and thanks to Astro, the satellite TV company, for giving us such an exciting experience of watching and re watching all the matches. The antics of the fans who added sound,colour, humour, excitement  and life to the games are also unforgettable. Real great!

                                      DinoSupremo- Fan of the tournament  via online voting

Looking forward to European Cup 2012 and the 20th FIFA World Cup in Brazil in 2014!

The FIFA World Cup 2010 - Now for the Semi-Finals

I have watched three quarter-finals, Brazil-Netherlands, Germany-Argentina and Paraguay-Spain with Netherlands, Germany and Spain going into the semi-finals and I predict Netherlands would make the fourth team into this stage.

Last night on 3 July 2010, my team Argentina was badly thrashed by 4 to nil by the Germans. Yes, Argentina has many brilliant players like Brazil but they tend to depend on individual players. Germany has relatively young team with full of energy and enthusiasm and great teamwork. They are admirable.

Earlier on I have said that I would support the underdogs but unfortunately they have all packed up their bags and gone home. Though I am sad at the way Ghana was dealt by Uruguay. That handball by Uruguayan striker, Suarez in front of the goal mouth, was really not in the spirit of the sport. I would call it downright cheating! Ghana was worthy of going into the quarterfinal and to be denied in such a manner was painful for the African fans. Suarez was red carded for his action and cannot play in the quarter-final match with the Dutch. For me he deserved to be banned from the game altogether. Apparently he celebrated his action by saying that now the "hand of God" belonged to him! Wouldn't like to see the like of him in the World Cup ever again,

 

Suarez's deliberate handball prevented Ghana's goal

The Brazil- Netherlands game was exciting with Robinho scoring a quick goal  at 10th minute after the start of the game, however the Dutch team came back to score two goals  to win. The Dutch hold the record of being unbeaten throughout all their matches. If they won the World Cup, they would be the  true champion.

     Netherlands in orange, scoring against Brazil

 Argentina lost by 4 to  Germany with a relatively young team with great team work. German's midfield is formidable. I noticed that Germany has players from other ethnic groups like Ozeil (Turkish descent), Boateing from Ghana and Khadeira of Tunisia descent. Argentina are all of the same ethnic group- just an observation.

What makes soccer a great game to watch is the team work they display and the strategy adopted by the coaches at different stages of the game like who they replaced whether a striker or a defender or a midfielder to add strength to the team and spur the game. Scheweinsteiger created beautiful chances for his teammates like  Muller to score. The fastest goal scored in world cup at three minutes into the game was just fantastic and could have disoriented the Argentinian defenders! Another world cup talk that I came across was the advantage Germany had over other competitors in using the new ball, the Jabulani, six months before the competition. Well, the talk would not have surfaced had Germany been eliminated earlier.

                                                     Bastian  Scheweinsteiger, German midfielder - Man of the Match

Nevertheless, it was both exciting and entertaining to watch the young German players working hard to deny Argentina's Lionel Messi's chances of showing his brilliance in goal scoring.  Though I was praying hard for Messi to score. I felt sad for Messi who apparently broke down crying in the dressing room post match. Gosh! Such is the effect of the World Cup. Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel was there to cheer her brilliant team! Now that is a people leader. She might just win the elections based on this German euphoria.

The Paraguay versus Spain quarterfinal was also worth watching. There was plenty of excitement with penalty aplenty and heroic saves by the goalkeepers of both nations. The Paraguayans were playing quite well almost denying Spain, one of Europe's soccer giants, its entry into the semi-final. Spain won one nil through their awesome striker, David Villa.

     David Villa celebrating his sole goal for Spain and into the semi-final

The semifinals are up next and I have to stop searching for my favourite teams and just enjoy the game, shouting for the better team to win. I hope they will play fairly so that the deserving team will hold the coveted cup. I must admit that I have seen  quite a number of unsportsmanlike behaviours such as stepping on opponent's ankle (Felipo Melo of Brazil - sent off the field) and that Nigerian player who kicked the butt of his fallen rival and he was also dismissed. And of course the well publicized altercation between Anelka and his coach! That was shameful and the  French team was the laughing stock of the world for refusing to train after that... talk about spitting into the air skyward! And to me , Suarez's deliberate handball took the cake.

All the best to all the semifinalists. May the best team win. Best in all respects, skills. strategy and conducts.

 

For the final I think it would be between Germany and the Netherlands, looks like it is going to be a  European affair after all.

The 2010 FIFA World Cup: In Search of my Favourite Team

Since the start of the 2010 world cup in South Africa, I have been watching the group games especially those televised by Astro at 7pm and 10pm Malaysian time. The only 2.30am game that I watched full time was on Saturday morning 12 June between England and Algeria. As Malaysia is not a world cup material yet, we Malaysians are forced to support any team we like, sounds pathetic but that is how life is at the moment.

                                  Football stadium at Durban, South Africa

Being in the Asian continent, firstly, I would support the Asian teams such as Japan, South Korea, DPR Korea, Australia and New Zealand.  I failed to watch the early games when these teams played as I was in the capital staying in a hotel which did not subscribe to the particular Astro channel! But I heard DPR Korea scored one goal against the mighty Brazil though they lost, it was quite an achievement. Then I read that Australia was defeated by four goals in their opening match then  I watched the disastrous loss by DPR Korea to Portugal last night , a historic seven to nil , what a trashing! Earlier, South Korea had lost to Argentina by four goals

 

South Korea's defender Lee Jung-Soo (R) celebrates with South Korea's midfielder Kim Jung-Woo after scoring the opening goal against Greece during the Group B first round 2010 World Cup football match South Korea vs. Greece on June 12, 2010 at the Nelson Mandela Bay stadium in Port Elizabeth. Getty Images / CARL DE SOUZA

I am not confident that any of the Asian team will reach the final though I would be most happy to be proved wrong. Of course I wish the world would see more of the Asian teams playing beautiful tactical games in the future so that we, as a continent, would get the recognition we deserve and stand tall in the international football community.

For other individual games, I usually support the underdogs  like I supported Algeria against England. I found it detestable for England's player Wayne Rooney to talk down on Algeria before the game. It ended up they only managed a scoreless draw. And England is now struggling to secure a place in the last 16 at knock-out stage.

My second line of support goes to the African continent represented by the host country, South Africa, Cameroon, Nigeria, Cote D'IVoire and Ghana. But unfortunately, they are not doing as well, Cameroon being the first to be eliminated in the group game. And where the name Didier Drogba, the Cote D'Ivoire striker , is synonymous with the best of African football.

My third choice is the eastern European teams of Slovenia, Slovakia and  Serbia which defeated Germany by one goal. They are not doing too badly considering that they are new to the world cup as independent nations and a country like Slovenia has less population than Malaysia!

Fourth is the South American teams represented by Brazil, Argentina, Honduras, Chile, Mexico,Paraguay and Uruguay. My what a team Argentina is! I like their fast pace and accurate passing and ball dribbling and tight control. They might just be my favourite team though a bit too early to confirm as I only watched them play once.

                           The Brazil players have booked their place in the last 16: Courtesy FIFA

I only supported USA team against England as I believed there would be more tickets sold to the Americans when USA advanced in the competition. More fans mean more money for FIFA to develop world football and promote world peace. In fact, it is the fans which make each world cup memorable and fascinating.

The last I would support is the Western European teams of Germany, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece, England, France, Denmark, Netherlands and Switzerland. This is because these countries have been known to be good all these years winning world cup many times. This situation is made possible by the many lucrative competitions that they have and the attraction of wealthy private clubs such as Real Madrid, InterMilan, Barcelona, Ajax, Galatasaray and Juventus. And those in England FA Cup, the like of Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal, truly, the opportunity list is endless.  Indeed these people dream and grow up in football environment. They are screened for their talent and fans come in droves to watch them. They command a full capacity stadium and market their tournaments to the global audience.  Sponsorships are also abundant. In Malaysia you only see such a capacity crowd when pop singers have their concerts!

Turning back to the world cup, my favourite team would come from other continents except Western Europe. As the Europeans are commercial icons though they represent their respective countries. Just look at the behaviour of the French team in the Anelka's fiasco with the coach!  My favourite team players  must be elegant, motivated, strong, respectful of their coach, skilful, fair, not overly physical and would not play act to fool the referee . They are fast, attacking with tight defence and  not given to time wasting to delay their opponents. They control the ball (jambulani) well, display accurate passing and possess great team work, in short, they are world-class and I am an incorrigible idealist!

So I am still actually looking for my favourite team to scream my heart out to, to pray for every goal attempt they make and to rejoice with them in their winning and to feel anguish when they lose. All these kinds of emotion are healthy to be expressed during this world cup mania.


                                                                      Portugal team rejoicing after beating
                                                                     DPR Korea 7-0 in group game: Courtesy FIFA                                                                             

                                           Blowing a vuvuzela :)  courtesy Anne-Catrin


Meanwhile I must get that made- in -China plastic vuvuzela to blow and compete with the annoying background sound of the stadium when my favourite team plays and....... irritate my soccer-mad spouse.

Stock market ... Trend reading by the unsavvy investor

I have been looking for a pattern in our local stock market for high volume activities. I noticed that in early part of the year especially before the Chinese New Year, volumes would go up and prices would also rise in tandem. Then come the first quarter results of companies and some other economic indicators and depending on the leads, the volumes or price will either slump or surge briefly in March and April, then the various companies will be declaring their dividends. Some fundamentally strong companies will still retain good prices despite the dividends payment.

The stock market will then take a breather and you will find that, apart from a surge here and there, it remains lethargic and now with the World Cup going on, the market will continue to be rather lacklustre. I have not visited the market since my portfolios took a deep plunge due to the Greek debt woes. The uncertainties retard market momentum. And so you read bad news today and the next some good news so the market goes "yo yo".

The US Federal Reserve Governor Ben Benarke did give an assurance a couple of weeks ago that the American economy had somewhat strengthened and so the "double dip recession" might not materialise and this has given some cheers to wary investors. Before that the DJI  index went down below 10,000 sending shivers to the investing community.

I have tried to read those technical charts to be more "scientific" but really those are merely  illustrations of "herd behaviour" of investors and they may not necessarily be indicative of wealth generation to the individual investor unless he/she knows when to leap in or ride off. Timing the market is never easy. I tried a few times, I can tell you that I sometimes gain and sometimes lose.  But if you are persistent and persevere and are not in a hurry to create instant wealth, you will actually generally gain when  you monitor the market behaviour long enough and have latest knowledge on the target companies and those financial news that matter.

Let us keep investing and contribute to the economy.