Allergy and itchy Mrs G

Mrs G is a a long-time patient of mine. She is a pleasant old lady of 56 who comes to the hypertension clinic regularly without fail and is compliant of her medication as a result her condition is pretty well under control. As I have quite a number of such patients, I put Mrs G on a three-monthly appointment. And Mrs G would always turn up at the appointed date.

So it was rather a surprise when my nurse told me one morning that Mrs G had insisted to see me ahead of her appointment in a month's time. She came into the clinic looking gaunt and depressed. She claimed she had not been able to sleep restfully for the last few weeks because of the annoying itchiness all over her body. She admitted going to see a private doctor on two occasions the past two weeks and paid nearly RM200.00 for an injection and medications but the itchiness had not subsided and she was really miserable. Luckily her son in law who is a driver to a Federal Minister helped foot the bill, otherwise she would be more unhappy as she is a housewife and her husband is a small time contractor.

I took one look at her body and observed the small reddish patches all over and I noticed the good old GP had even given her high dose steroid but to no avail. I asked her about any new medications,foods or chemicals that she started using just prior to the generalised itchiness. She replied no but I insisted that she try hard to remember. For that kind of skin allergy, it must have been something enveloping her body either internally or externally. Then I asked her whether she had just changed her washing powder and Walla! "That's it", she said. her son- in- law had bought a new clothes detergent about three weeks before and since then she had had the problem. I told her simply to get rid of the detergent and use her old one and to rewash all her clothes. I gave her some anti-histamines after the consultation.

A couple of days ago, Mrs G came in for her hypertension appointment looking healthy and lovely and obviously very pleased with herself. She then announced that her itchiness had gone and she could sleep well now after she discarded the culprit washing detergent.

Again here, there is no miracle medicine but just simple history taking and a high index of suspicion regarding the cause of the allergy. Being my long-time patient also help me to make a faster diagnosis of her condition. For an allergic condition, medications are no answers if the trigger ( the offending agent) is still present.

TM- Timely Repurchase of Shares?

As expected after the ex date of the capital repayment of TM, the shares depreciated about 30 sen from the last close of 6.04 on 26 July 2012. In fact it went down lower than 30 sen to 5.65! I was watching the trend closely but could not really decide when to enter (secretly hoping it would go down lower still- Big deal!). My better half decided to repurchase his shares at 5.70 and I was still being smugly hesitant.

TM- the relentless rise post-capital repayment on 27 July 2012

The week went by and the buying volume gradually increased by the thousands. As usual I like to buy when everyone else seems to sell on late Friday afternoon but somehow people seemed to still keep buying the shares, erasing the usual pattern of lethargy in the market on Fridays. I was rather perplexed initially then it dawns upon me that this stock is not going to retreat despite the volatile financial situation at the global level. I went in to buy at 5.72 on 3 Aug and when wanting to buy additional shares, within minutes it went to 5.73 and my remisier advised me to stop and wait for a "better price" on a Friday? No, I told her firmly (no risk, no gain), please continue buying  at 5.73 and last Friday week, the closing price was 5.75.

And the price continued to rise even to 5.90 last week with the closing being 5.81 last Friday 10 Aug. And so the decision to buy at that price was kind of lucky I would say and not due to clever investing skill. It would have been wonderful had I decided to buy at 5.65! All the same, it was not a timely repurchase in the real sense of the word but it is when you note the sudden focused price uptrend at the point just after I repurchased the shares. I envy my better half's decisive timing though, buying at the bottom of the trough.

As usual, I will stick to Burton Makiel's ( Random Walk on Wall Street ) advice to buy and hold as I believe in TM's long term's prospects of giving high dividends to its investors and wait for another capital repayment exercise in 2015?

By the way, TM might just announce another dividend distribution later this month to be paid by September? I cannot wait for that pocket money.

MAXIS - Ananda, Market Reaction and Panic Selling

Regret and disappointment  were overwhelming when I read that Ananda Krishnan, the multi-billionaire major shareholder of MAXIS  suddenly sold a substantial number of shares of the telco below market price last week. Right after the news the share price depreciated fast down to 6.26. As most of us who read articles or books on investment would have known that when an owner of the company sells his shares, we should also follow suit. The logic is why should the owner of a supposedly profitable company dispose of his shares? Is the company heading for lower bottomlines? ( read profit/dividend).

When Uncle Ananda sneezes, we all catch a cold!

I bought the shares high at 6.385 in the middle of June 2012 and had witnessed the short rally when the price appreciated right to 6.92 in early July but did not sell as I was thinking of getting the high dividends declared every three months. I held on to the shares rather arrogantly.

I  noticed the nervous selling down  in the market of MAXIS shares following the news. I was also in the state of  apprehension myself and was thinking that I should cut my losses fast by selling at 6.37 last Friday 27 July 2012.

I asked my remisier to queue in the morning and it seemed nobody was buying. In the meantime, I read an online article on the subject and came to understand  that Ananda actually sold his shares to PNB and EPF. I felt relieved as I knew these mammoth institutions exist to make money for their members/investors and they are not likely to sell off the shares as the stock generates good dividends. By 2.30pm the same afternoon, I called up my remisier and asked whether she was able to sell my 50% shares and she replied in the negative. I told her immediately to cancel it while hoping that my decision and analysis of Ananda's action were correct.

And later, true enough the  shares began to recover and today the price has gone up to 6.57. Some people would have made quite a sum had they bought my shares at 6.37 last Friday!

Panic selling due to herd mentality is not abnormal in a stock market. People react to news, negative or positive to defend their positions. Individual investors are supposed to find out fast the reasons behind such action and analyse the information so that a decision made either to sell or to buy is based on rational analysis and not on emotion. But really, it is easier said than done and one can always be wise  after the event. In my case, I made the decision to withdraw the selling just in time.

I believe Ananda would not have done anything to destabilise his company. Moreover he only sold 5% of his holding of 70% and he has also just become one of the cornerstone shareholders of the third largest IPO in the world, the IHH! MAXIS shares appreciated from 5.39 early in the year to 6.92 middle of July so his selling them  at 6.21 to the "safest" institutions in Malaysia would have already made him enough money to fund his new business/ acquisitions including IHH.

By the way, have we ever heard that MAXIS's customers are dumping the telco? A big  "NO", so the generation of income will still give  a generous dividend of 32 sen annually ( provided past performance is sustainable).

Yes, I also initially reacted mindlessly to the news of Ananda's shares' disposal and nearly dumped  50% of my shares but by the stroke of luck, no small  investors could have foreseen the temporary hiccup in the market and so refused to touch those shares I had wanted to short!

Dividend Leader of the Pack

From now on, and for a period of  time, I will keep MAXIS shares for its high dividend-yielding nature.